With real wages falling as we entered the recession, the last thing a firm will do is hire between now and 2012, says Paul Brewbaker, principal of TZ Economics, a local economics consulting firm.

Brewbaker made his remarks as the keynote speaker at HEC’s 66th Annual Meeting on Nov. 19. He pointed to HEC President & CEO Tim Ho’s report to members, which cited HEC’s recent salary surveys and labor contract negotiations indicating that many employers, both union and nonunion, were freezing or cutting salaries and taking back certain benefits. (We will be posting the President’s Report to Members.) Brewbaker projects that the employment picture will not improve quickly because “over the long haul, leisure travel is at the end of the list.” For more on Brewbaker’s forecasts, see https://www.boh.com/economics/index.asp.